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Off Your Game: How Climate Change Could Slow Down the 2026 World Cup

Climate change is making the 2026 World Cup hotter. Use this information hub from Climate Central to explore how heat could slow down player performance across all of the 2026 World Cup matches — and how climate change is increasing the odds of heat.

SEE THE MATCHES MOST INFLUENCED BY CLIMATE CHANGE THIS WEEK

Climate Matches of the Week

Several World Cup matches this week are forecast to be played in climate-change-driven heat, highlighting how rising global temperatures are increasing heat-related risks at major sporting events.

The Climate Shift Index (CSI) measures how climate change influences temperatures. A CSI of 2 means those conditions were made at least two times as likely by climate change.

  • July 4 | 5 PM

    Paraguay vs. Winner Match 77 (TBD)

    Philadelphia Stadium — Philadelphia, PA

    • Forecast high: 96.3°F (35.7°C); above 82.4°F () the athlete performance threshold
    • Departure from normal: 9.6°F (5.3°C)
    • Climate Shift Index (CSI): 2
    • Wet bulb temperature: 78.3°F (25.7°C); above the dangerous humid heat threshold; event not possible without climate change influence
    • Humid heat made at least seven times more likely due to climate change.

  • July 3 | 6 PM

    Argentina vs. Cape Verde

    Miami Stadium — Miami Gardens, FL

    • Forecast high: 86.6°F (30.3°C); above 82.4°F () the athlete performance threshold
    • Climate Shift Index (CSI): 1
    • Wet bulb temperature: 78.1°F (25.6°C); above the dangerous humid heat threshold; event not possible without climate change influence
    • Humid heat made at least 10 times more likely due to climate change.

  • July 2 | 5 PM

    Portugal vs. Croatia

    Toronto Stadium — Toronto, ON

    • Forecast high: 92.8°F (33.8°C); above 82.4°F () the athlete performance threshold
    • Departure from normal: 15.6°F (8.7°C)
    • Climate Shift Index (CSI): 2
    • Wet bulb temperature: 79.4°F (26.3°C); above the dangerous humid heat threshold
    • Humid heat made at least seven times more likely due to climate change.