NJ Seniors at Risk of Storm Surges in Atlantic, Cape May, Ocean Counties

Cape May County resident Fury Feraco, 90, lives in a house on a raised dune. Photograph by Edward Lea, Press of Atlantic City.

Sandy-like threats to very elderly NJ Shore residents

People aged 85 and older are at severe risk during storm surge events, vulnerable to injury and death even during evacuations. Yet elderly populations living along American coasts continue to increase. 

Ahead of the ten-year anniversary of Superstorm Sandy making landfall in the Northeast, Climate Central conducted this analysis to identify areas where very elderly residents are concentrated in areas in the South Jersey counties South Jersey counties of Atlantic, Cape May and Ocean that would be expected to flood again during another storm surge such as Sandy's. 

An estimated 1,644 people over 85 were found to live in communities in these counties that would be expected to experience flooding in another Sandy-like storm surge. Sandy's storm tide was 4.29 ft above the high tide line in Atlantic City. 

This analysis builds on Climate Central’s 2021 report that examined risks of coastal flooding to nursing homes and assisted living facilities as sea levels rise and severe storms become more frequent. The report highlighted unique threats to seniors, who experience higher death rates from hurricanes as well as financial and other health consequences of flooding. While evacuating from an aged care facility can be more dangerous than sheltering in place, the choices are different for the growing number of elderly people who live alone.

While fewer than 2% of Americans are aged 85 or older, in a census tract in the center of Ocean City, about 17% of the population belonged to this age group, according to the latest Census data. The area, which is only about 1.6 acres in size, would be expected to be inundated again in a Sandy-like storm surge.

Two other examples of areas home to concentrations of very elderly residents that would be underwater during such a storm surge were identified at the southern end of Ventnor City and on a stretch of shoreline that includes the communities of Barnegat Light, Harvey Cedars, and Long Beach. 

Key findings

Thousands of elderly people are living in neighborhoods that would experience some flooding during a storm like Sandy. 

• An estimated 11,143 people over 85 are living in areas that could experience some residential flooding in a storm like Sandy. This includes census tracts completely covered by Sandy's storm surge as well as those with flooding at the edges of residential areas. 

• About 34% of these tracts have a greater percentage of residents 85 and older than the U.S. average.  

Many of these seniors are living in neighborhoods that would be fully flooded. 

• An estimated 1,853 people over 85 are living in census tracts that could have nearly their entire residential area underwater in a Sandy-like Scenario. This includes much of Brigantine, Atlantic City, Ventnor City, Margate City, Ocean City, Long Beach, and other areas. 

• Of the census tracts that were fully inundated by Sandy's storm surge, one in five contained more residents over the age of 85 than the U.S. average. 

Census tracts with the greatest percentage of residents aged 85+

Methodology

Climate Central had previously produced a map that modeled the extent of flooding during Hurricane Sandy. To compare flood areas with very elderly populations, data from U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey was downloaded from the Bureau’s data website and the table was added to ArcGIS Online and compared with Climate Central's modeling of the extent of Sandy's storm surge.

By using a basemap composed of satellite imagery with street labels and place names, residential areas were identified. Census tracts with neighborhoods that were partially or fully flooded were identified visually and added to a separate table, from which a list of risk hotspots was created.