Disenfranchised by Climate Change

Climate change affects everything, including the right to vote — a foundational and core right in democracies. Wicked weather increasingly threatens the exercise of that right by making it harder for people to register to vote, to get to the polls, and to have their ballots counted. And in 2024, already a record-breaking year for global average temperature, more than 80 countries — home to more than half the world’s population — are holding nationwide elections.

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Upcoming (dark blue) and past (list blue) national elections in 2024. (International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance)

Deliberate attacks on electoral integrity abound, ranging from disinformation campaigns to Consider election day. Voting should not imperil human health. But standing in hours-long lines outdoors on a very hot day can do just that, causing heat stroke and even death. Extreme heat takes an exceptionally large toll on older people, young children, and pregnant women. It is also dangerous for those with certain pre-existing medical conditions such as heart disease. potential for violence, challenging the capacity of societies to manage elections. But one set of risks is growing even without nefarious intent: that posed by extreme weather events. Those risks will continue to increase as climate change worsens a panoply of extreme weather events such as heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes, deluges, and floods.

Disasters make it harder to vote

Weather-related disasters can affect the full range of election-related activities. If voters—or poll workers—cannot reach the registration office or polling place due to flooding, heat, or another disaster, votes may never be cast or counted. Consider election day. Voting should not imperil human health. But standing in hours-long lines outdoors on a very hot day can do just that, causing heat stroke and even death. Extreme heat takes an exceptionally large toll on older people, young children, and pregnant women. It is also dangerous for those with certain pre-existing medical conditions such as heart disease. Wildfire smoke poses similar risks, as even short-term exposure can be harmful to people with asthma, diabetes, and heart or lung disease. Torrential rains lead to flash floods that can be lethal to those caught in them: as the U.S. National Weather Service puts it, “Turn around, don’t drown.”

Voters facing extreme heat, wildfire smoke, or a deluge may choose not to venture outside on election day. If they do decide to travel to the polls, they may discover that fire or flooding has blocked roads and that power outages have occurred.

In the wake of disasters, election officials may find themselves with a shortage of suitable polling places or discover that ballots cannot be delivered because roads or bridges are washed out. Power outages may occur, making it impossible to continue with voting for days or weeks. Ballot collection boxes may get destroyed by wildfires and/or floods. The upheaval caused by climate-driven disasters may even open opportunities for electoral mischief with officials distracted by rapidly evolving crises.

Those disruptions do not disappear when heat waves break, storms abate, floodwaters recede, or fires subside. Voters displaced by a disaster may have lost identification needed to register or cast a ballot. More immediate tasks, like finding food, housing, and schools for their children, may — by necessity — take precedence over casting a ballot. Displacement may also leave voters far from their assigned polling places for lengthy periods if their homes remain uninhabitable. Even for voters who are not displaced, road closures and other transportation disruptions can make it impossible to reach the polls for weeks or months at a stretch. When such disruptions affect less-affluent regions disproportionately or are repaired less quickly, climate-driven extreme weather may impact not only the rights of those voters, but also election outcomes.

Extreme weather events and their aftermath may also interrupt campaigning. For example, an outdoor rally held in extreme heat can threaten the health of the candidate, staff, and supporters, and floods can hinder the ability to travel to campaign venues. Likewise, these events can make it harder for successful candidates to reach the halls of government, particularly for rural representatives in countries with limited transportation infrastructure.

Some events may affect vast numbers of voters, but many will have more localized impacts. Yet, the disenfranchisement of even a few voters can make a profound difference in election outcomes, including ones with global repercussions. Though not weather-related, the United States provides a memorable reminder that a small number of votes can have big consequences: a mere 537 votes in Florida determined the presidency in the 2000 election.

Regardless of whether one’s vote determines the outcome of an election, individuals who are unable to vote because of climate-driven extreme weather lose a fundamental human right within a democracy.

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Acknowledgements

This report was written by Karen Florini, Senior Advisor at Climate Central, and Alice Hill, David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment at the Council on Foreign Relations. Climate Central staff provided quantitative analysis of attributable temperatures as well as editorial assistance, layout and (except as noted) graphic design. Council on Foreign Relations staff provided research assistance. The authors gratefully acknowledge helpful comments provided by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.

Initial work for this report was conducted by the authors during their Residency at the Rockefeller Foundation’s Bellagio Center (www.rockefellerfoundation.org/bellagio-center), with helpful input from other members of their Residency cohort and from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. The assistance of the Foundation, the Center, and the Institute is gratefully acknowledged as well.