Climate Shift Index Alert•November 19, 2024
Analysis: Climate Change-Driven Ocean Warming Intensifies Record November Typhoon Activity in the Western Pacific
For the first time on record, four named tropical systems were simultaneously active in the Western Pacific Ocean in November: Typhoon Yinxing, Typhoon Toraji, Super Typhoon Usagi, and Super Typhoon Man-Yi. Man-Yi was the strongest and most influenced by ocean temperatures boosted by climate change.
Each of these powerful storms experienced rapid intensification over warmer-than-average November sea surface temperatures. The Climate Shift Index: Ocean tool, which quantifies the influence of climate change on sea surface temperatures, indicates that these warm ocean temperatures were made up to 40 times more likely by human-caused climate change.
The Philippines has been impacted by a total of 16 tropical cyclones or their remnants this season, resulting in deadly landslides and severe flooding due to unprecedented, repeated typhoon activity and oversaturated soils. Over recent weeks, at least 160 deaths have been reported, and more than 9 million people have been displaced due to widespread damage to communities, infrastructure, and farmlands.
Storm (local name) | Date of | Maximum Intensity | Climate Shift Index: Ocean | Notable Impacts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Yinxing (Marce) | November 7, 2024 | 233kph (145mph) | 3x - 10x | “The typhoon flooded villages, toppled trees and electricity poles, and damaged houses and buildings in Cagayan province, where Yinxing made landfall Thursday afternoon, provincial officials said. More than 40,000 villagers were evacuated to safer ground in the province.” (AP) |
Toraji (Nika) | November 10, 2024 | 145kph (90mph) | 10x - 30x | “Toraji’s fierce wind and torrential rains swamped 25 villages in six towns in floodwater. At least 22 bridges were impassable due to the floods and 13 towns and the provincial capital of Tuguegarao city reported power outages.” (AP) |
Usagi (Ofel) | November 13, 2024 | 241kph (150mph) | 2x - 6x | “While the evacuation of more than 5,000 Gonzaga residents ahead of Usagi saved lives, he said two houses were swept away and many others were damaged while the farming region’s livestock industry took a heavy blow.” (The Citizen) |
Man-Yi (Pepito) | November 16, 2024 | 257kph (160mph) | 10x - 40x | “At least eight people were killed and Hundreds of houses in the northern Philippines were inundated on Monday after water released from a dam following Typhoon Man-yi caused a major river to overflow.” (DW) |
For more information on the Climate Shift Index: Ocean, refer to the FAQs.
What do experts say?
Dr. Daniel Gilford, Meteorologist and Climate Scientist at Climate Central, said:
“The parade of typhoons tracked over waters clearly heated by human-caused climate change. These elevated ocean temperatures increased the chance of rapid intensification for each storm, compounding their collective impacts.”
How do we know climate change is influencing this heat?
The Climate Shift Index: Ocean is grounded in peer-reviewed methodology and high-quality data. It quantifies the influence of climate change on sea surface temperatures.
The Ocean CSI indicates how human-caused climate change has influenced the likelihood of daily sea surface temperatures occurring at nearly any location around the world’s oceans.
To request an interview with a Climate Central scientist, please contact Abbie Veitch at aveitch@climatecentral.com.