Analysis: Valencia floods fueled by ocean warming in the Tropical Atlantic linked to climate change

October 31, 2024

On October 29, Spain’s Valencia region experienced devastating flooding due to torrential rains, leaving at least 95 dead and causing extensive damage to infrastructure and property. Rain totals throughout the event were reportedly as high as 20 inches, or 500 millimeters, equal to the normal total in a year for some locations.

The low-pressure system driving these historic floods tapped into an atmospheric river carrying excess moisture from the unusually warm Tropical Atlantic. According to the Climate Shift Index: Ocean, these elevated sea surface temperatures were made at least 50 to 300 times more likely by human-caused climate change.

This Climate Shift Index: Ocean analysis is based on OISST data. The graphic illustrates the moisture source region for the atmospheric river that fed the cut-off low pressure system (DANA) situated over Spain.

How do we know climate change is influencing this ocean heat?

The Climate Shift Index: Ocean is grounded in peer-reviewed methodology and high-quality data. It quantifies the influence of climate change on sea surface temperatures.

The Ocean CSI indicates how human-caused climate change has influenced the likelihood of daily sea surface temperatures occurring at nearly any location around the world’s oceans.

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