Climate Shift Index AlertMarch 13, 2025

Climate-driven warmth aids two-day, early-spring severe weather threat

A large and intense weather system is poised to bring multiple rounds of severe weather across the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Deep South on March 14-15, 2025. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare two-day “Moderate Risk” (level 4 out of 5) for parts of both the Midwest and Deep South.

While many factors contribute to a severe weather event, warmth is a primary driver. Temperatures across the region are forecast to be 15-25°F above mid-March averages. Human-caused climate change is making this kind of early-season warmth more likely, allowing temperatures to reach levels that support thunderstorm development..

Note: The forecast may evolve. Check the Storm Prediction Center for the latest severe weather outlook and use the Global Climate Shift Index map to stay updated on heat in your region.

How has climate change influenced temperatures during this severe weather risk period?

CSI Alert: Midwest and Deep South March 14 2025
CSI Alert: Midwest and Deep South March 15 2025

How does climate change influence severe weather trends? 

What do experts say?

Dr. Kristina Dahl, VP of Science at Climate Central, said: 
"This level of early-season warmth is striking — temperatures this far above average create an environment where severe storms can form more easily," said Dr. Kristina Dahl. "As climate change drives more frequent and intense heat, we’re seeing conditions conducive to the formation of  severe weather coming earlier in the year and across a broader swath of the country."

To request an interview with a Climate Central scientist, please contact Abbie Veitch at aveitch@climatecentral.org

How do we know climate change is influencing this heat?

The Climate Shift Index uses peer-reviewed methodology and real-time data to estimate how climate change has increased the likelihood of a particular daily temperature.

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