Climate change-fueled heat impacts Mediterranean amid ongoing wildfires

As wildfires force entire towns to evacuate across Greece, the country is experiencing heat that climate change has made up to five times more likely. The entire Mediterranean and surrounding regions are also experiencing dangerously high temperatures fueled by climate change.

Use the Global Climate Shift Index map to stay updated on how climate change is influencing heat in your region.

Climate change and heat across Greece: 

• In Greece, the most recent major fire started on Sunday, August 11, 2024, northeast of Athens/East Attica. Since Sunday, CSI values have sustained levels of 3 or 4 in Greece’s Attica region. CSI values are expected to remain high, reaching levels of 4 or 5 in the coming days. That means climate change is making the forecasted temperatures at least 4-to-5 times more likely.

• On Sunday, temperature anomalies were just above 1 degree Celsius in Attica. However, in the ensuing days (Monday/Tuesday), temperature anomalies increased to over 2 degrees Celsius. Some portions of Attica experienced higher anomalies (>2.5 degrees Celsius). Through August 15th, and possibly longer, these anomalies are expected to increase even further, exceeding 3 degrees Celsius at times in the regions in and around Athens.

• In Thessaloniki, where another fire is happening, CSI values reached 5 on Monday, August 12, and are expected to remain at this level in the coming days. Temperature anomalies in Thessaloniki are expected to average 3 to 6 degrees Celsius above normal between August 11 and 15.

• Prolonged drought and excessive heat have heightened fire risk for a large portion of the Mediterranean region.

Regions in Greece with extreme fire alerts:

• Boeotia: Temperature anomalies in the coming days are expected to exceed 3.5 degrees Celsius across the region. CSI values are expected to reach 3 to 5, meaning climate change is making these temperature 3 to 5 times more likely, in the coming days.

• Evia: Temperature anomalies in the coming days are expected to exceed 1 degree Celsius across the region. CSI values are expected to reach 4 or 5, meaning climate change is making these temperature 4 to 5 times more likely, in the coming days.

• Argolis/Corinth: Temperature anomalies tomorrow are expected to exceed 2.5 degrees Celsius across the region, increasing to above 4 degrees in the coming days. CSI values are expected to reach 5, meaning these temperatures would be almost impossible in a world without carbon pollution, in the coming days.

• Crete: Temperature anomalies in the coming days are expected to exceed 2.5 degrees Celsius across the region. CSI values are expected to be 5, at least 5 times more likely, in the coming days. 

Broader Mediterranean: 

• From August 11 to August 15, temperature anomalies across the Mediterranean are expected to be positive. The most anomalously warm regions are expected to be the northern portions of the Mediterranean, with much of Italy, France, Greece, and Albania expected to experience temperatures between 3 and 6 degrees Celsius above average.

• Meanwhile, Croatia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Hungary, and Austria are expected to average temperature anomalies between 6 and 10 degrees Celsius.

• Over the whole period, the rest of the Mediterranean is mostly expected to experience temperature anomalies between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius.

• The heat in much of the region is expected to be directly linked to climate change. Over the five days, each day in the following regions is expected to reach CSI levels of 5 — meaning that climate change made those elevated temperatures at least 5 times more likely to occur: France, Italy, much of Greece, western Turkey, Syria, Israel, Palestine, Egypt, eastern Libya, and much of Tunisia.

• CSI values in Spain and Morocco were 5 on August 11 and 12, but temperatures are expected to cool in the coming days.

What do experts say?

Dr. Andrew Pershing, VP of Science at Climate Central, said: 
“As we watch these devastating fires unfold in Greece, we know that the heat helping to drive them is directly tied to climate change,” said Andrew Pershing, VP of Science at Climate Central. “If we do not stop burning fossil fuels, devastating summers with extreme temperatures in the Mediterranean will become the norm, not only in Greece but across the region.”

To request an interview with a Climate Central scientist, please contact Abbie Veitch at aveitch@climatecentral.org