Analysis: Ocean temperatures warmed by climate change provided fuel for Hurricane Milton's extreme rapid intensification

Update: October 14, 2024
After Climate Central released the alert below on October 7, Hurricane Milton continued the process of extreme rapid intensification, with maximum sustained winds increasing by 120 mph (193 km/h) in just 33 hours. This rapid intensification was fueled by abnormally warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which allowed the storm to maintain Category 4 and 5 strength through the early hours of October 9. Our partners at World Weather Attribution conducted a rapid attribution study on Hurricane Milton, finding that it was wetter, windier and more destructive because of climate change. On October 9, Hurricane Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida, downgraded to a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 120 mph. Before this reduction in intensity, it set a record as the strongest Gulf of Mexico hurricane this late in a season. The storm produced destructive winds, freshwater flooding, and a storm surge between 5 and 10 feet along the western coast of Florida. Over 4 million people experienced power outages, and tornadoes spawned by the hurricane caused several fatalities across the state.

Update: October 14, 2024

After Climate Central released the alert below on October 7, Hurricane Milton continued the process of extreme rapid intensification, with maximum sustained winds increasing by 120 mph (193 km/h) in just 33 hours. This rapid intensification was fueled by abnormally warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which allowed the storm to maintain Category 4 and 5 strength through the early hours of October 9.

Our partners at World Weather Attribution conducted a rapid attribution study on Hurricane Milton, finding that it was wetter, windier and more destructive because of climate change.

On October 9, Hurricane Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida, downgraded to a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 120 mph. Before this reduction in intensity, it set a record as the strongest Gulf of Mexico hurricane this late in a season. The storm produced destructive winds, freshwater flooding, and a storm surge between 5 and 10 feet along the western coast of Florida. Over 4 million people experienced power outages, and tornadoes spawned by the hurricane caused several fatalities across the state.

October 7, 2024

As of 1 P.M. CDT Monday, October 7, Milton is a historically powerful Category 5 Major Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of at least 175 mph, currently positioned in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Milton has undergone extreme rapid intensification over sea surface temperatures warmed by climate change. “Extreme rapid intensification” is defined as an increase in a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained winds of ~58 mph (50 knots) or greater within 24 hours. Hurricane Milton experienced a ~92 mph (80 knots) increase in maximum sustained winds in 24 hours.

Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the region where Hurricane Milton is developing are at or above record-breaking highs. A rapid attribution analysis determined that those temperatures were made up to 400-800 times more likely by climate change over the past two weeks.

This Climate Shift Index: Ocean analysis is based on OSTIA, the Copernicus based high-resolution SST data product, and is framed conservatively. Future, daily analyses may compute even higher attribution numbers.

Typically, Climate Central quantifies the specific influence of climate change on sea surface temperatures daily using OISST data. However, due to the devastating impacts of Hurricane Helene, daily updates from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) based in Asheville, N.C. remain unavailable. This disruption caused by Hurricane Helene is directly hindering scientists’ ability to report on Hurricane Milton.

Note: This is NOT a storm forecast. Visit the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates and information on how the storm is evolving.

For more information on the Climate Shift Index: Ocean, refer to the FAQs.

What do experts say?

Dr. Daniel Gilford, Meteorologist and Climate Scientist at Climate Central, said:
“Climate change clearly warmed the Gulf waters that fueled Milton’s development, likely supercharging its rapid intensification and making this hurricane much more dangerous. Fossil fuel pollution is amplifying this threat.”

To request an interview with a Climate Central scientist, please contact Abbie Veitch at aveitch@climatecentral.com.

How do we know climate change is influencing this heat?

The Climate Shift Index: Ocean is grounded in peer-reviewed methodology and high-quality data. It quantifies the influence of climate change on sea surface temperatures.

The Ocean CSI indicates how human-caused climate change has influenced the likelihood of daily sea surface temperatures occurring at nearly any location around the world’s oceans.