Climate change amplifying ocean heat along the projected path of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine

The National Hurricane Center has initiated forecasts for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, which is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures along the system’s projected path, through the Northern Caribbean and Eastern Gulf of Mexico, have been made at least 200 to 500 times more likely due to human-caused climate change.

Note: This is NOT a storm forecast. Visit the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates and information on how the storm is evolving. For more information on the Climate Shift Index: Ocean, refer to the FAQs.

What do experts say?

Dr. Daniel Gilford, Meteorologist and Climate Scientist at Climate Central, said: “Unseasonably hot ocean temperatures made hotter by human-caused climate change will offer the storm plenty of fuel to intensify once it becomes better organized.” 

How do we know climate change is influencing this heat?

The Climate Shift Index: Ocean is grounded in peer-reviewed methodology and high-quality data. It quantifies the influence of climate change on sea surface temperatures.

The Ocean CSI indicates how human-caused climate change has influenced the likelihood of daily sea surface temperatures occurring at nearly any location around the world’s oceans.

To request an interview with a Climate Central scientist, please contact Abbie Veitch at aveitch@climatecentral.com.