Climate Matters•April 2, 2025
New U.S. Coastal Risk Map and Analysis
KEY CONCEPTS
Climate Central’s Coastal Risk Finder provides maps and analysis of the people, homes, and land at risk from worsening coastal flooding driven by rising seas in the contiguous U.S.
Around 2.5 million Americans in 1.4 million homes live in areas at risk from a severe coastal flood in 2050 under projections that assume global pledged commitments to reduce carbon pollution are met.
Florida, New York, and New Jersey have the most people and homes in areas at risk from a severe coastal flood.
Older adults are disproportionately exposed to coastal flood risk. Nearly 540,000 people aged 65 and older live in at-risk areas.
Age is one of several demographic factors that contribute to an individual’s vulnerability to flooding. Coastal Risk Finder provides detailed demographic information to help users explore coastal flood risk within local communities.
Climate Central's Coastal Risk Finder mapping resource uses open-access data from multiple federal agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Census Bureau, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. See Methodology for details.
Introducing Coastal Risk Finder
In the U.S., coastal floods now happen three times more often than they did 30 years ago — and the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding are projected to increase into the future. By 2050, floods are expected to happen 10 times more often than they do today.
This accelerating flood risk is driven by our warming climate, which is causing sea levels around the world to rise. Rising sea levels push tides and storm surges higher and farther inland.
Climate Central’s Coastal Risk Finder provides maps and analysis of the people, homes, and land projected to be at risk from worsening coastal flooding driven by rising seas in different U.S. geographies under various scenarios or pathways for reducing heat-trapping pollution.
Data and visuals from Coastal Risk Finder support storytelling about the communities at risk from coastal flooding and rising seas — and the ways they’re adapting.
Users can get local coastal flood projections in the contiguous U.S. states and the District of Columbia, which can help them understand who and what is at risk in their communities. They can also learn about adaptation projects happening in each coastal state and additional actions they could take.
Explore the tool or check out our user guides for media professionals, government officials, community leaders, and more.
People and homes at risk
Using data from Coastal Risk Finder, Climate Central analyzed who and what are at risk from a severe coastal flood in 2050, assuming global pledged commitments to reduce carbon pollution are met and result in long-term warming consistent with the SSP2-4.5 pollution pathway. A severe flood is defined here as a coastal flood that has a 1% chance of occurring in a given year (also known as a 100-year flood). See Methodology for details.
Around 2.5 million people in 1.4 million homes in the U.S. currently live in areas projected to be at risk from a severe coastal flood in 2050.
Risks in coastal states
Florida, New York, and New Jersey have the most people and homes in areas at risk from a severe coastal flood in 2050.
Table: States with the most people and homes currently in areas at risk from a severe (100-year) coastal flood in 2050 under the current commitments pathway (SSP2-4.5).
State | Population at risk | Homes at risk |
|---|---|---|
Florida | 505,000 | 355,000 |
New York | 445,000 | 188,000 |
New Jersey | 324,000 | 232,000 |
Louisiana | 313,000 | 140,000 |
Massachusetts | 174,000 | 90,000 |
Virginia | 146,000 | 71,000 |
California | 112,000 | 46,000 |
Texas | 78,000 | 56,000 |
North Carolina | 67,000 | 50,000 |
South Carolina | 67,000 | 45,000 |
Social vulnerability and coastal flooding
Many factors can affect an individual’s capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from a flood. These factors influencing social vulnerability include age, vehicle access, income, and English proficiency, among others.
Coastal Risk Finder incorporates social vulnerability data based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Community Resilience Estimates and facilitates exploration of coastal flood risk exposure by demographic groups.
Three out of every four (1.8 million) Americans who live in areas at risk from a severe flood in 2050 have at least one component of risk, and one in four (620,000) have at least three.
Older adults more at risk from coastal floods
Age is one of the factors that contribute to a person’s vulnerability to coastal flood risk. Of the total population living in areas in the contiguous U.S. at risk of a severe coastal flood in 2050, more than one-fifth (22% or 540,000 people) are age 65 or older, despite comprising only 16% of the total population in coastal states.
Read Climate Central’s report, Coastal Flood Risks Across the U.S., or explore Coastal Risk Finder for more analysis on the people and places at risk from coastal floods in the contiguous U.S.
LOCAL STORY ANGLES
Use Coastal Risk Finder to:
Find out who and what is at risk. Explore data showing the risks that sea level rise and coastal flooding pose to the people, land, and homes in your community using the Impacts cards. Use the location search bar to choose your state, county, municipality, congressional district, or state legislative district of interest. Then, use the Select a scenario and Additional settings menus to toggle between different years and flood scenarios.
Download local high-resolution visuals for stories. Coastal Risk Finder’s data can be downloaded as high-resolution images to visualize coastal flooding projections and impacts.
Explore local coastal flooding adaptation projects. Find curated lists of adaptation projects and resources in each coastal state in the Solutions cards and learn more from trusted organizations like the Georgetown Climate Center and Sea Grant programs.
CONTACT EXPERTS
Kristina Dahl, PhD
Vice President for Science
Climate Central
Relevant expertise: climate impacts, warming projections
Contact: kdahl@climatecentral.org
Sheetal Shah
Program Director
Urban Ocean Lab
Relevant expertise: urban coastal resilience and adaptation
Contact: sheetal@urbanoceanlab.org
Annie Bennett
Associate Director for the Adaptation Program
Georgetown Climate Center
Relevant expertise: coastal resilience and adaptation policy
Media Contact: Pete Rafle climate@georgetown.edu
FIND EXPERTS
Submit a request to SciLine from the American Association for the Advancement of Science or to the Climate Data Concierge from Columbia University. These free services rapidly connect journalists to relevant scientific experts.
Explore databases such as 500 Women Scientists, BIPOC Climate and Energy Justice PhDs, and Diverse Sources to find and amplify diverse expert voices.
Reach out to your State Climate Office or the nearest Land-Grant University to connect with scientists, educators, and extension staff in your local area.
DATA SOURCES
Population:
Population by age: 2023 American Community Survey (5-year)
Sea level projections: IPCC 2021 Medium Confidence
Coastal flood projections: Tebaldi et al. 2012
Analysis mask: US Building Footprints v1.1
Coastal defense data: National Levee Database
Elevation data: NOAA Coastal Topographic Lidar
Geographic boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau
METHODOLOGY
This analysis only considers coastal flooding — when the ocean rises, causing water to flow out over the land — and does not consider inland flooding. It does not account for the increasing intensity of storms driven by climate change, potential future erosion, permafrost thawing, wetlands migration, changing tidal dynamics, new construction, or population growth/decline.
To determine the projected height of a 100-year flood in 2050, Climate Central used local sea level rise projections for the global warming pollution pathway most consistent with current global emissions reduction pledges and commitments (SSP2-4.5). We refer to this as the current commitments pathway. Projections were provided by the IPCC’s AR6 medium confidence model and a previously published coastal flood model.
The people and homes in each census block or tract were assumed to be evenly distributed amongst that area’s buildings.
Buildings are identified as vulnerable when their elevation is below the selected flood level and there is an unobstructed path for the water to reach that location from the ocean. This approach, commonly known as bathtub modeling, takes into account whether a low-lying area is protected by higher ground but does not consider wind, waves, or the inland attenuation of flood height from water flow friction.
Figures in this report have been rounded to two significant figures or, for numbers over 100,000, the nearest 1,000.
Read Climate Central’s report, Coastal Flood Risks Across the U.S., for the full methodology.