Climate Matters•February 12, 2025
Climate Change is Heating Up West Africa's Cocoa Belt
KEY CONCEPTS
Excessive heat is one of many factors that can affect cacao growth and global chocolate supplies.
Climate Central analysis found that human-caused climate change is bringing more excessive heat to West Africa, which produces 70% of the world’s cocoa — the main ingredient in chocolate.
Climate Central analyzed how human-caused climate change has affected the frequency of daily maximum temperatures above cacao’s optimal growth range (90°F) in Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria over the past 10 years (2015-2024).
Climate change added about 40 days per year with maximum temperatures above 90°F in cacao-growing regions of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which together account for over half of global cocoa production.
Along with excessive heat, changes in rainfall and insect-borne infections can also affect cacao growth, global chocolate prices, and local economies and livelihoods in cocoa-producing regions.
Climate extremes threaten cacao growth
Prices of cocoa surged by 136% between July 2022 and February 2024, and climate extremes in West Africa’s cocoa belt, which produces 70% of the world’s cocoa, are partly to blame.
Cocoa — the main ingredient in chocolate — is produced from the bean pods of cacao plants. Cacao thrives under specific ranges of temperature and rainfall.
Warm to hot temperatures up to 90°F (32°C) are optimal for cacao growth. Temperatures above this range can reduce the quality and quantity of harvests, and climate change is bringing more excessive heat to major cacao-growing regions.
That’s according to new analysis using Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index (CSI).
Climate change boosts growth-limiting heat in West Africa's cocoa belt
Climate Central analyzed how human-caused climate change — due primarily to burning oil, coal, and methane gas — has affected the frequency of daily maximum temperatures above 90°F in West Africa’s cocoa belt over the past 10 years (2015-2024).
This analysis used observed temperature data as well as estimates of counterfactual temperatures (temperatures that would have occurred in a world without human-caused climate change) derived from the Climate Shift Index (CSI) system (see Methodology for details).
This analysis focused on 44 major cacao-growing regions across the world’s top four cocoa-producing countries: Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria. Brazil, Indonesia, Peru, Chile, and Ecuador are other major cocoa producers, but were not included in this analysis.
Over the last 10 years, human-caused climate change has increased the frequency of cacao-limiting heat (maximum temperatures above 90°F) across West Africa’s cocoa belt.
Climate change had the biggest impact in cacao-growing regions of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which together account for over half of global cocoa production, supporting the livelihoods of millions of farmers and workers. In both countries, climate change added about 40 days per year with daily maximum temperatures above 90°F, on average during the past 10 years.
Cameroon and Nigeria experienced, an average of 18 and 14 additional days per year of cacao-limiting heat because of climate change, respectively.
Most (28 out of 44) of the cacao-producing areas analyzed experienced at least six additional weeks worth of cacao-limiting heat each year due to human-caused climate change.
Read Climate Central’s report, Climate change is heating up West Africa's cocoa belt, for the full analysis.
Changes in rainfall can also harm cocoa crops
Shifting rainfall patterns can further strain cacao growth. Adequate and well-distributed rainfall is crucial for cacao plants — which grow best when annual rainfall totals are between 1,500 and 2,000mm (59 and 79 inches), with dry spells lasting no longer than three months.
Changes in rainfall account for much of the year-to-year variation in production, such as in 2024 when inconsistent rainfall patterns led to a globally-felt cocoa price hike.
Climate change is projected to increase large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions across many parts of the world, including West Africa, potentially affecting cocoa production.
Other factors that threaten cocoa production
Threats to the future of cocoa production go beyond the direct impacts of changes in temperature and rainfall. Illegal mining, smuggling, and the spread of cacao swollen shoot virus through mealybug infestations are also impacting the quantity and quality of cacao harvests, driving up chocolate prices and creating additional challenges for farmers. Changing conditions not only harm yields in existing cocoa production, but will also likely make it more difficult to establish new fields, threatening continued cocoa production in certain regions.
Rising temperatures also put people at risk
Hot days above 90°F limit chocolate production and are dangerous for cocoa farmworkers and their families. Extreme heat compounds other dangerous and physically-demanding working conditions, including exposure to chemicals, lifting heavy loads, and long hours. Many cocoa farmers make less than $1 equivalent per day and are older adults or children — both groups that are at higher risk of heat-related illness. Since about 90% of cocoa is produced by small-scale operations, the changing climate is a significant factor that directly harms the lives and livelihoods of cocoa farmers.
Limits of climate adaptation for cocoa production
Adaptations can help cocoa farmers respond to changing conditions, but they cannot fully prevent challenges and disruptions in the production of cocoa. Adaptations include breeding plants that are more resistant to heat and drought, planting taller trees among cacao to create shade, and shifting production to areas where future conditions are likely to be suitable. It may be difficult, however, for small-scale cacao farmers to implement adaptations that may be expensive, labor intensive, or require specialized knowledge.
LOCAL STORY ANGLES
Find sustainably produced chocolate products
Fairtrade International cocoa certification program certifies cocoa farms that use sustainable and fair practices such as treating workers and families fairly, protecting young people, using fewer chemicals, protecting the soil, and taking actions relating to climate resilience. While individual choices cannot solve the challenges that the chocolate industry faces, consumer choices can help to support practices that are more likely to be resilient under changing conditions.
CONTACT EXPERTS
Christian Bunn, PhD
Scientist II
Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT
Relevant expertise: adaptation to climate change in cocoa value chains
Contact: c.bunn@cgiar.org
*located in CET*
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METHODOLOGY
Climate Central analyzed observed temperatures using ERA5 reanalysis temperature data. Additionally, this analysis utilized counterfactual temperatures, or the temperatures that would have occurred in a world without human-induced climate change. These are estimated using Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index (CSI) system.
For this analysis, we split each year from 2015-2024 into two seasons corresponding to cacao production: the main crop cycle (October-March) and the mid-crop cycle (April-September). We then counted the number of days each crop cycle when the daily maximum temperature exceeded 32°C (89.6°F) over the ERA5 and counterfactual temperatures from 2015-2024 and calculated the difference to determine how many additional days above 32°C were caused by climate change.
See Climate Central’s report, Climate change is heating up West Africa's cocoa belt, for the full methodology.