Climate Matters•November 25, 2024
Children Exposed to Major Coastal Floods in the U.S.
KEY CONCEPTS
New Climate Central analysis shows how many people in the contiguous U.S. currently live in areas at risk from a major coastal flood in 2030, assuming a high pollution scenario.
Around 1.9 million people in the contiguous U.S. currently live in areas at risk from a major coastal flood in 2030 — and around one-fifth (around 400,000) of those people are younger than 18 years old.
New York has the most children at risk (more than 78,000), followed by Louisiana (more than 72,000), and New Jersey (more than 56,000).
Children are among the most vulnerable to the physical and mental health risks associated with experiencing a flood. Climate Central’s fact sheet, Climate Change & Children’s Health: Flooding, details how increasing flood risks impact children’s health and well-being.
This Climate Central analysis was made possible by open access data from NOAA, the Army Corps of Engineers, and the Census Bureau.
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In the United States, coastal floods now happen three times more often than they did 30 years ago, and will continue to increase. In another 30 years, they are expected to happen ten times more often than they do today. This accelerating flood risk is driven by rising sea levels pushing tides and storm surges higher and further inland.
Climate Central assessed near-term coastal flood risks, represented here by 2030 projections, for people currently living in the contiguous U.S., assuming a high emission scenario (see Methodology).
This analysis identifies the populations living in areas at risk of experiencing a major flood in 22 coastal states and the District of Columbia. A major flood, sometimes called a 100-year flood, is defined here as a flood that has a 1% chance of occurring each year. Findings show that in these states:
Around 1.9 million people currently live in areas at risk from a major coastal flood in 2030.
Florida has the most people living in areas at risk in 2030 (over 360,000), followed by New York (more than 340,000), and New Jersey (more than 280,000).
Children at risk from coastal flooding in the near future
Climate Central further examined the rising coastal flood risks for children (under 18 years old) and very young children (under 5 years old) — because children are among the most vulnerable to the potential health risks associated with flood exposure.
Under the pollution pathway considered (see Methodology), the analysis shows that:
Nearly 400,000 children live in areas at risk of experiencing a major flood in 2030 — and more than a quarter of these children (nearly 110,000) are under 5 years old.
New York has the most children at risk (more than 78,000), followed by Louisiana (more than 72,000), and New Jersey (more than 56,000).
State | People (all ages) living in areas at risk from a major flood in 2030 | Children living in areas at risk from a major flood in 2030 |
|---|---|---|
Florida | 361,000 | 55,000 |
New York | 343,000 | 78,000 |
Louisiana | 281,000 | 72,000 |
New Jersey | 265,000 | 57,000 |
Virginia | 106,000 | 24,000 |
Massachusetts | 104,000 | 17,000 |
California | 85,000 | 20,000 |
Texas | 59,000 | 12,000 |
North Carolina | 52,000 | 11,000 |
South Carolina | 47,000 | 9,000 |
Coastal flood risks will rise
Rising sea levels due to human-caused warming will continue to increase coastal flooding in the decades ahead.
Climate Central’s analysis also examined longer-term impacts, based on 2050 and 2100 projections.
Nearly 4.8 million people currently live in areas expected to be at risk from a major coastal flood in 2100. Around 20% (940,000) of those people are children under the age of 18. Coastal demographics are likely to shift in the future, including in response to growing climate risks.
Protecting children from flood risks
Exposure to hazards such as indoor mold, waterborne pathogens, and toxic chemicals — along with the potential social harms caused by disruption to routines, increased stress at home, and displacement — can all put children’s health and safety at risk during and after a flood.
Parents and caregivers can protect children by preparing for weather-related disasters and limiting exposure to flood-damaged buildings after a storm.
Community investment in climate resilience can reduce flood vulnerability and help protect children and families.
Climate Central’s fact sheet, Climate Change & Children’s Health: Flooding, details how increasing flood risks are impacting children’s health and well-being.
Other populations vulnerable to coastal flooding
Age is one of many factors that contribute to an individual’s vulnerability to coastal floods. Climate Central’s report, Coming Storms: Climate Changes and the Rising Threat to America’s Coastal Seniors details how older adults (aged 65 and older) are both more likely to be exposed to coastal flooding and more vulnerable to the associated physical, mental, and financial harms.
LOCAL STORY ANGLES
What’s the flooding outlook in your local area?
NOAA’s Coastal Inundation Dashboard provides 48-hour forecasts, real-time watches, warnings, and advisories from the National Weather Service, and images of recent floods. NOAA’s Annual and Monthly High Tide Flooding Outlooks show when high tide flooding is most likely at coastal stations around the U.S. to guide seasonal planning and preparedness. The Annual Outlook also provides local high tide flooding projections for the next three decades.
What’s at risk in your nearest coastal area?
Use Climate Central’s Risk Finder to learn who and what is at risk from various coastal flood levels in any U.S. state, county, municipality, congressional district, zip code, etc. and download fact sheets, data tables, and more. Use NOAA’s Coastal County Snapshots to explore, visualize, and download data about flood hazards, sea level rise, and the marine and coastal economy in 850+ coastal counties. Go deeper with NOAA’s Coastal Flood Exposure Mapper to locate people, infrastructure, and ecosystems exposed to flood hazards along U.S. coasts.
How are sea levels and coastal floods changing in your area?
Climate Central’s Coastal Risk Screening Tool can be used to map areas at risk from sea level rise and coastal flooding under a range of scenarios. NASA’s Sea Level Projection Tool provides sea level rise projections for each decade through 2100 for hundreds of locations around the world. Use The Climate Explorer, part of the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit, to chart past and projected high tide flooding in your community.
What is being done about flooding in coastal communities?
Learn about coastal adaptation resources and projects in your area via the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit, Argonne National Laboratory’s Resilience Resources Gateway, the Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange, or Georgetown’s Adaptation Clearinghouse and State Adaptation Progress Tracker. Or reach out to your local Sea Grant office.
CONTACT EXPERTS
To request an interview with one of Climate Central’s sea level rise experts, please contact Peter Girard at pgirard@climatecentral.org.
Lisa Patel, MD
Clinical Associate Professor of Pediatrics and Pediatrician at Stanford Medicine Children’s Health
Executive Director, Medical Society Consortium on Climate and Health
Related expertise: children's health and climate change
Media contact: media@stanfordchildrens.org
(Not available 11/28-11/29.)
FIND EXPERTS
Submit a request to SciLine from the American Association for the Advancement of Science or to the Climate Data Concierge from Columbia University. These free services rapidly connect journalists to relevant scientific experts.
Browse maps of climate experts and services at regional NOAA, USDA, and Department of the Interior offices.
Explore databases such as 500 Women Scientists, BIPOC Climate and Energy Justice PhDs, and Diverse Sources to find and amplify diverse expert voices.
Reach out to your State Climate Office or the nearest Land-Grant University to connect with scientists, educators, and extension staff in your local area.
METHODOLOGY
Population data used in this analysis comes from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey (5-year). Children were defined as anyone younger than 18 years old and very young children were defined as anyone younger than 5 years old. Future changes in population and demographics were not included in this analysis. The population in each census tract was assumed to be evenly distributed amongst that block’s buildings. Building data comes from Microsoft’s 2018 U.S. Building Footprints Database. Population totals within the text have been rounded to two significant figures and to the nearest 1,000 in the table.
To calculate what buildings, and thus what people, are at risk from a 100-year coastal flood, Climate Central used lidar-derived elevation data provided by NOAA and the Army Corps of Engineer’s National Levee Database to determine whether each home was below the projected water level and hydrologically connected to the ocean. This approach, commonly known as bathtub modeling, takes into account whether a low-lying area is protected by higher ground, but does not consider wind, waves, or the inland attenuation of flood height from water flow friction. This analysis only considers coastal flooding — when the ocean rises causing water to flow out over the land — and does not consider riverine or precipitation-driven flooding.
To determine the projected height of a 100-year flood in 2030, 2050, and 2100, Climate Central used sea level rise projections for a high pollution pathway (SSP3-7.0) provided by the IPCC’s AR6 medium confidence model and a peer-reviewed coastal flood model. The projected flood heights do not take into account the increasing intensity of storms driven by climate change.