Climate Matters•December 18, 2024
Chances of a White Christmas
Wishing our wonderful Climate Matters network a joyful holiday season. We are deeply grateful for your work. We look forward to working together in 2025.
We'll be back with your next Climate Matters on Thursday, January 9 (2024 U.S. Summary) and Friday, January 10 (2024 Global Summary).
KEY CONCEPTS
If you’re dreaming of a white Christmas … historically your chances are best in Alaska, the Northern Plains and Rockies, the Great Lakes region, and parts of the Northeast. The historical probability of a white Christmas is slimmer for the rest of the contiguous U.S.
That’s according to NOAA’s analysis of the historical probability of at least 1 inch of snow accumulation on December 25 during the most recent 30-year climate normal (1991-2020).
Of the 247 cities typically covered by Climate Matters, the odds are highest in: Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska; Marquette, Mich.; Duluth, Minn.; Presque Isle, Maine; Bozeman, Mont.; Wausau, Wis.; and Minot, N.D.
Snow feeds water supplies and supports economies. But these benefits melt away when the timing and amount of snowfall shifts.
As the planet warms, observed changes in snowpack, snowfall, and the length of snow seasons vary among U.S. regions. Find more in Climate Central’s analysis of snowfall trends in the U.S.
This Climate Matters analysis was made possible by open access data from NOAA/NCEI.
LOCAL STORY ANGLES
Will you have a snowy festive season?
NOAA’s interactive map provides a guide to the historical probability of at least 1 inch of snow accumulation on December 25 near you based on the last 30 years of weather data. Launch an interactive map, get a KMZ version, and download the raw data on NOAA’s website. Check your local forecast within a week of the holidays you celebrate for the actual weather conditions up on your rooftop this year.
What’s the snow forecast for where you live?
The National Weather Service’s Winter Weather Desk provides twice-daily local forecasts for snow and freezing rain. Criteria for winter storm watches, advisories, and warnings can vary by region so check with your local National Weather Service office. The NWS also provides helpful information on how to stay safe in winter conditions.
METHODOLOGY
White Christmas probabilities represent the historic chance of at least 1 inch of snow depth on December 25 based on 1991-2020 climate normals. NOAA/NCEI calculated probabilities for thousands of U.S. stations. Of the 247 stations typically used in Climate Matters analyses, 183 had sufficient data to determine historical white Christmas probabilities. For the remaining 64 locations, the probability of the nearest station with sufficient data was used. Graphic footnotes indicate the station ID used for each market. NOAA/NCEI’s detailed methodology, including limitations and caveats, can be found on Climate.gov.