Climate Matters•December 11, 2024
2024 in Review
KEY CONCEPTS
Heat-trapping pollution continues to warm our planet, pushing global temperatures to dangerous levels.
2023 was the hottest year on record, and 2024 is on track to be even hotter — and the first year when the average temperature will top 1.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial average.
In response to climate warming, extreme weather and climate events are becoming more frequent and more intense — resulting in devastating losses.
The U.S. has experienced 24 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters this year (through November), four fewer than the record 28 disasters in 2023. Hurricanes Helene and Milton are included in the tally, yet the total economic costs of these events are still being evaluated.
Through November, the average time between billion-dollar disasters in 2024 was just 12 days — a striking decrease from an average of 82 days between disasters in the early 1980s.
This Climate Matters analysis was made possible by open access data from NOAA/NCEI and NASA.
Off the charts warming
It is virtually certain that 2024 will unseat 2023 as Earth’s hottest year on record. And for the first time ever, the annual global average temperature anomaly will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — the key long-term threshold set by the Paris Climate Accord in 2015. However, the limit set by the Paris Climate Accord refers to a longer-term average of global temperatures (on the scale of decades), meaning that the occurrence of 1.5C of warming for a single year does not equate to exceeding the Paris threshold.
According to combined data from NOAA and NASA, year-to-date (January through November 2024) global surface temperature ranked highest in the 145-year record at 1.54°C (2.77°F) above the early industrial (1881-1910) baseline average.
Mark January 10, 2025 on the calendar: NOAA plans to release all global temperature data for 2024, and look to Climate Matters for related reporting resources.
Billion-dollar disasters in 2024, second only to 2023
The U.S. experienced 24 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters from January through November 2024 — a total second only to the record 28 annual disasters set just last year.
These 24 billion-dollar disasters have resulted in an estimated 418 deaths and $61 billion in damages. However, these (January – November) totals do not include damages associated with Hurricanes Helene or Milton, which may add a stark $100 billion or more to this figure. If so, the 2024 total damages would surpass the $95 billion combined disaster costs in 2023.
Recovery time on the decline
The frequency of billion-dollar disasters has increased significantly since 1980, placing many more people, homes, and businesses at physical and economic risk.
A stark reality emerges from a Climate Central analysis: the average length of time between billion-dollar disasters has plummeted from 82 days in the 1980s to 15 days in recent years (2020-2024).
This alarming trend continues into 2024, with the average interval between billion-dollar disasters shrinking to a mere 12 days (in the first 11 months).
Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2024
The following list of select billion-dollar disasters in 2024 includes many types of events that are often made more frequent and/or intense by the artificial warming of our climate system.
Tropical cyclones: The U.S. was impacted by five landfalling hurricanes this year, four of which caused billions of dollars in damage. Human-caused climate change increased the intensity for all of the Atlantic hurricanes in 2024, according to Climate Central analysis.
July: Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 hurricane to form in the Atlantic Basin on record, made landfall along the Gulf Coast as a Category 1.
August: Hurricane Debby impacted the East Coast in August with heavy rain, and damaging flooding.
September: unprecedented rainfall and catastrophic flooding from Major Hurricane Helene debilitated large parts of western North Carolina. Leading to at least 225 deaths, Helene was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Maria (2017), and the deadliest U.S. mainland hurricane since Katrina (2005). A World Weather Attribution analysis found that Helene’s rainfall was ~10% heavier due to climate change.
October: Major Hurricane Milton, with peak maximum sustained winds of 180 mph, is now the fifth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic Basin on record. Milton’s impact on South and Central Florida included intense winds, storm surge, and the largest single-day tornado outbreak in the state’s history.
Hurricanes Beryl, Helene, and Milton all underwent rapid intensification (defined as an increase in wind speeds of at least 30 kt, or ~35 mph, in 24 hours). Research shows that climate-fueled ocean warming is leading to an increased number of tropical cyclones that experience rapid intensification.
Major hurricanes, Milton and Helene, struck just 13 days apart. The final costs of these two storms’ massive tolls are still being assessed by NCEI and other governmental agencies, but are expected to be in the tens of billions or more.
Severe storms: Of this year’s 24 billion-dollar disasters through November, 71% (17) were severe storms defined as thunderstorms that produce tornadoes, damaging winds (58 mph or higher), and/or large hail. January saw a tornado outbreak across the South, and the Midwest experienced significant tornado outbreaks in both February and March.
Ten separate severe storm billion-dollar disasters occurred in April and May, including major tornado outbreaks across the South and Midwest. In June and July, three billion-dollar severe storm events occurred in the upper Midwest and Northeast, including a record-breaking tornado outbreak in the Chicago area and Rhode Island's first ever June tornado.
Though the connections between climate change and tornado activity are not straightforward, recent studies indicate that certain conditions favorable to thunderstorms and tornadoes are occurring more often or expanding into historically less-active seasons and regions.
Wildfire and smoke: This summer, numerous wildfires affected New Mexico and caused damage to homes, vehicles, businesses, agriculture, and other infrastructure. The most impactful wildfire occurred near the town of Ruidoso, where more than one thousand structures were destroyed.
Fire weather seasons in the U.S. have grown longer and more intense since the 1970s — particularly in western states, where hotter temperatures exacerbate drought conditions that make wildfires easier to spread. Carbon pollution released by wildfires creates a hazardous feedback loop by further contributing to climate warming.
Winter storms: Mid-January 2024 plunged both the Northeastern and Northwestern U.S. into bitter cold. These multi-day arctic cold spells were accompanied by high winds and icing conditions leading to property damage, tree damage, and widespread power outages. Emerging research suggests that climate change effects to the polar vortex are making conditions more favorable to these arctic cold snaps, though this is still an active area of research.
LOCAL STORY ANGLES
Today’s costly climate impacts — on human health, ecosystems, and economies — reflect about 1.2°C (2.1°F) of global warming. Every fraction of a degree of additional warming further intensifies these consequences.
Well-established science shows that if we commit to rapid and sustained cuts in heat-trapping carbon pollution, we could set younger generations on a path toward a far safer future with reduced climate warming and fewer risky extreme events.
Many of the solutions we need to reduce dangerous emissions, and choose this healthier future are already available. Climate Central resources show progress and potential in every state:
Fastest-Warming Cities and Record Clean Investment shows Private and public U.S. investment in clean technologies like solar, wind, and battery storage has never been higher — more than tripling from 2018 to 2023. See how wind and solar energy are set to grow in your state under current policies.
Climate Solutions in Every State reviews options to quickly reduce emissions in each U.S. state’s top-emitting sector.
Learn more about solutions that can bring the U.S. closer to net-zero emissions by 2050.
FIND EXPERTS
Submit a request to SciLine from the American Association for the Advancement of Science or to the Climate Data Concierge from Columbia University. These free services rapidly connect journalists to relevant scientific experts.
Browse maps of climate experts and services at regional NOAA, USDA, and Department of the Interior offices.
Explore databases such as 500 Women Scientists, BIPOC Climate and Energy Justice PhDs, and Diverse Sources to find and amplify diverse expert voices.
Reach out to your State Climate Office or the nearest Land-Grant University to connect with scientists, educators, and extension staff in your local area.
METHODOLOGY
Global temperature anomaly data as of December 12, 2024. Monthly global temperature analyses are independently calculated by NASA and NOAA/NCEI. Climate Central combines the NOAA and NASA information to re-baseline global temperatures using an earlier pre-industrial baseline of 1881-1910. NOAA data begins in 1850 and NASA data begins in 1880. Climate Central’s rankings are based on the longest period of overlap, beginning in 1880. NASA’s calculations are extended to account for temperature changes at the poles, where there are fewer stations. NOAA does not use any extrapolation to account for low station density at the poles.
All U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters data are from: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2024). https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/ (DOI: 10.25921/stkw-7w73).
All billion-dollar disaster cost estimates included in this Climate Matters are CPI-adjusted.
The time between U.S. billion-dollar disasters was calculated by measuring the time between the start date of each disaster as recorded by NOAA/NCEI. The difference in days was only for calendar year events, with the first event of the calendar year set as the first date. For this reason, there are no data points for 1987 and 1988, which had zero events and only one event, respectively.