News•October 17, 2012

Throughout the U.S., the Onset of Autumn Is Falling Back

By Climate Central

If it feels or looks like autumn leaves are taking longer to change color, you’re not imagining things. Over the past 25 years, the onset of autumn has shifted throughout the lower 48 states, with leaves now staying on trees about 10 days longer than they did in the early 1980s.

Using satellite-based measurements of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which gauges leaf cover over wide areas, researchers at the Seoul National University in South Korea found that the end of the growing season occurred progressively later over the course of their 26-year study. By noting the time of year changes in color occurred most rapidly, the researchers could track when fall started between 1982 and 2008.

The average end of growing season date for the lower 48 states, 1982-2008.
Click image to enlarge.
Credit: Climate Central.

Difference in last day of growing season, 1982-2008. Brown indicates later than average, while the green indicates earlier. Click image to enlarge.
Credit: Climate Central.

As our two graphics show, there is significant variation from year to year, and from region to region. This regional variation is driven by a number of factors: altitude, rainfall and soil conditions are just a few things that play a role. However, by looking at a given region as a whole, and comparing the 5-year average between the start and the end of the study, our analysis found that fall in the continental U.S. now arrives 10.5 days later on average — a shift of about a week and a half.

When leaves change color — what scientists call the transition from “active growth to leaf-drop” — is based on several natural factors. Chillier temperatures associated with the onset of fall are one, along with the shorter fall days; changes in rainfall from one season to the next play an important role as well (a dry summer means that leaves will die and drop earlier). This is why we don’t see the changes we associate with fall happen at exactly the same time every year — there’s so much natural variation in the weather.

However, as this study shows, the average time these changes occur can shift over the course of many years. This long-term trend toward a later autumn is related to the fact that temperatures overall are getting warmer. In other words, there is natural year-to-year variability as well as a long-term trend in the data.

On a global scale, this has implications for the carbon cycle: a shift in the length of the growing season means leaves will stay greener for longer and can continue absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide for more time during the year. This can affect the timing of when and where CO2 builds in the atmosphere.

That’s if you’re thinking globally. If you’re thinking locally, don’t be surprised if you find yourself raking your lawn in December in years to come.